Winners and Losers

The results of last night's Ontario election: Liberals: 53, Progressive Conservatives: 37, New Democrats: 17. So, who were the winners and losers?

Dalton McGuinty was a winner. He earned his third consecutive election victory, a rarity in politics. He came from far back in the polls just a few months ago, preaching a message of hope about the future that many Ontarians embraced in the midst of economic turbulence.

Dalton McGuinty was a loser. His Liberals lost 19 seats, several points in the popular vote, and majority status, barely.

Tim Hudak was a winner. In his first campaign as leader, he increased his party's share of the popular vote by 2.5% and its seat total by 12.

Tim Hudak was a loser. He blew a double-digit lead in the polls with a bizarrely negative campaign that went off message several times, attacking immigrants as "foreign workers" and supporting homophobic groups that accused schools of promoting cross-dressing. He was inexperienced, and it showed.

Andrea Horwath was a winner. She increased her party's popular vote by 8% and seat total by 7. In her first campaign, she earned recognition and respect and finally laid to rest the ghost of the Rae government.

Andrea Horwath was a loser. Her party's platform was eerily similar to that of Hudak's PC's, stressing tax cuts for "working families". Sure, there was a promise to roll back the most recent Liberal cuts to corporate tax rates, but under Horwath, the NDP adopted the rhetoric of anti-tax populists, hardly sounding like a progressive party.

So what does the future hold?

This was Dalton McGuinty's last campaign, and everyone knows it. Liberal cabinet ministers (those who survived last night) are already jockeying for the leadership. How will he retain his hold on his own caucus and cabinet, let alone the legislature? He's in for a tough time, but it would be a mistake to underestimate him. There's certainly some truth to the nice guy persona, but there's also steel under the Mr. Dad cardigan.

Hudak and Horwath have both earned the right to stick around and next time they will be the experienced campaigners facing a rookie Liberal leader.

In his "concession" speech, Hudak continued to raise the spectre of the bogeyman Dalton McGuinty, the "tax man". Two points: dude, the election's over. And if it didn't work then, why do you think it's going to work now? Get some new material, please. He came off as strident and petty. Significantly, he praised Horwath, no doubt knowing that every vote the NDP gains comes from the Liberals. It may be his only hope: in this campaign, Hudak branded himself as Mr. Negative. Unless he can shake that image, his growth prospects seem limited.

Horwath stressed her eagerness to get down to work as soon as possible, and her readiness to work with the other parties to address the urgent challenges facing Ontario. She came across as positive and energetic. She poses a real threat to the Liberals next election. And Tim Hudak's best chance to become premier. Unless Andrea Horwath beats him to it.

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