Happy Jack

It turns out attack ads, not imitation, may be the sincerest form of flattery.

With less than a week to go in the campaign, both the Conservatives and the Liberals have released the hounds on Jack Layton and his surging New Democrats. Their actions smack of desperation and are unlikely to be effective.

The question on the minds of many pundits, of course, is why Canadians are turning to Layton and the NDP. And while not even Nostradamus can predict these kinds of seismic shifts in the political landscape, it's far easier to explain them in retrospect. Heck, even I can do it, so here goes.

Being the frontrunners, and sensing a majority was within reach, Conservative strategy from the outset was to play it safe. So Harper has campaigned inside a bubble, keeping the media at bay, refusing to entertain more than five questions a day, and restricting access to his events to those who've been vetted by his security forces. He has promised little beyond a few far-distant tax cuts to select groups, who were already committed to him anyway. This may be red meat to the true believers, but it's failed to make new converts, and the Conservatives have seen their support slowly erode.

A Gloomy Gus by nature, Harper's bigger mistake may have been to misjudge the mood of Canadians. He has warned of coalition chaos, of a sea of troubles lapping at our shores, and of economic black holes if he doesn't receive a majority. The Nervous Nellies and Fraidy Freds among the electorate may enjoy the thrill of horror when subjected to dire predictions of calamities to come, but most of us would prefer to hear a more hopeful version of the future, if only for the sake of our children and grandchildren.

And this is the reason, I think, why voters are turning to "Happy Jack" Layton. He's offering a vision of a better future and he's selling it with a smile.

The Liberals, too, have a progressive platform, but the Conservatives have been attacking Michael Ignatieff for several years now and have defined him in the minds of many Canadians. This is unfortunate, because these people would be favourably impressed if they actually saw and heard him.

But the Conservative attack machine initially ignored Layton in this campaign. Besides, Layton has been around long enough that Canadians already had formed their own impression of his character, and polls have always shown that they liked what they saw. Tired of minority governments, yet still deeply mistrustful of Stephen Harper, it seems Canadians are ready to strike out on a course none of the pundits foresaw.

So, maybe it all boils down to this: it's spring. The snow is gone, the daffodils are blooming, young men are having their fancies turned. It's the season of hope and Stephen Harper's message of doom and gloom is falling on deaf ears. We'd much rather be having a beer on the patio with Happy Jack.