Monday, May 2, 2011

Election Day Predictions

Thought I'd stick my neck out, just for fun. The only prediction I have any confidence in is that the Conservatives will win the most seats. I put their chances of a majority at 30%, but a minority is more likely.

The wild card is how strong a showing the NDP makes, whom they take votes from, and how the vote splits in 3-way, and even 4-way races. There'll probably be several recounts.

It looks as if voter turnout will be greater than the 58.8% registered in the 2008 election and that will have an impact as well.

Will social media play a role? Will young people vote?

It promises to be an historic night.

Anyway, CPC: 145, NDP: 80, LPC: 57, BQ: 26.

That means Harper will form a government and there will be no NDP-LPC coalition. But plenty will have changed. Buckle up.

Whatever your choice, Canada and democracy are winners when you vote.

Have a great day.

1 comment:

  1. Ok - my predictions. Cons win weak minority but Lib + NDP > Cons so Lib + NDP bring down Cons govt at first opportunity (speech from the throne, first budget, whatever) and ask GG to allow them to form a coalition gov't. Iggy leaves Libs / gets kicked off the island and Libs bring back Paul Martin. Jack Layton is PM with Paul Martin as Minister of Finance, ushering in an era of NDP social policies, Liberal fiscal responsibility and Cons moping. Everyone's in their natural element! LOL. PS> And BQ? Who are they??? ;-)

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