OK, You Can Still Worry

In my previous post, I explained why I wasn't as pessimistic as some about the nation's prospects for the next four and half years. I said there were reasons to be hopeful: the Conservatives may prove incompetent in implementing their agenda, things don't always go according to plan, and public opinion can be a powerful brake on a reckless government.

Lest you get the impression I believe there's nothing to be concerned about, let me outline the dangers a Conservative majority government poses for Canada.

Conservative/conservative governments are generally harmful to – and occasionally disastrous for – a nation's finances and for the living standards of its poor, wage earners, and middle class. The U.S. has the examples of Reagan, Bush I, and Bush II. In Canada there's the Mulroney and Harper record deficits, and at the provincial level the governments of Harris in Ontario, Lyon in Manitoba, and Devine in Saskatchewan. Taken all together their budget deficits add up into the trillions (hundreds of billions in Canada), while under their watches, all but the rich saw their incomes stagnate for the last thirty years.

Their tax cuts went mostly to corporations and the wealthy, while cuts to public services battered the rest of us. Meanwhile, government spending continued to rise, the money wasted on swollen military and security budgets, sweetheart "public-private partnerships" and privatizations, consultants and "contractors". Taxation has moved away from progressivity (i.e.: taxing income, at higher rates for the wealthy), placing a greater burden on the poor and wage earners through consumption taxes like the HST and reduced taxes on corporations, the rich, and investors. The Income Tax Act has come to resemble a Swiss cheese, shot full of tax breaks for special interest groups whose support conservatives wished to secure.

During the election campaign, Stephen Harper pledged to continue down this path: buying fighter planes, cutting corporate taxes, proposing tax-saving strategies for wealthy single-earner families, and doubling the amount of investment income that can be sheltered from tax in TFSA's. If implemented, these measures will both worsen the nation's finances (i.e.: increase the deficit) and increase social inequality by further privileging the wealthy.

In effect, like the Americans have been doing, we will be paying taxes and borrowing money to give it to the rich. The long-term consequences for our country will be much the same.

The Conservatives will talk about "cuts" as a way of balancing the budget. Cuts to programs and services have never balanced a budget. If they had, we would have been treated to a long string of Conservative surpluses. Cuts are simply code talk for ideological attacks on people and things Conservatives don't like: the poor, workers, women, natives, immigrants, equality, human rights. Government spends very little on these now; cutting them all wouldn't pay for one fighter plane. But cut they will be, while the billions paid annually in subsidies to oil companies making record profits in the tar sands will be left untouched.

Furthermore, don't expect The Harper Government™ to do anything – at least anything positive – about climate change or other environmental issues, or to restore Canada's tarnished reputation in the global community. But don't expect a frontal assault on public health care, either. The Conservatives can simply let two-tier health care emerge in the provinces by neglecting to enforce the Canada Health Act.

So despite the glimmers of hope, there are still plenty of reasons for pessimism. Consider what Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said in 2006 when presenting his first budget. Asked what he thought Canada would like after five years of a Conservative government, Flaherty replied: "It will look more like Ireland." By 2015, he could be right.