Who’s Afraid of Stephen Harper?

Maybe it's just my naturally sunny disposition, or maybe it's all those good meals I enjoyed in Niagara, but I can't bring myself to feel quite as pessimistic as some of my friends at the prospect of the next four and half years under the iron heel of a Stephen Harper majority government.

It's not that, with the Liberals circling the wagons and firing inward, and the NDP/NPD preoccupied with getting a handle on its new role, I expect we'll be saved by the opposition, at least not for a while.

No, my reasons for optimism that the Conservatives won't get things entirely their way have to do with the nature of the Conservatives themselves and that of their leader, and the differences between navigating a minority parliament and leading a majority government.

The Conservatives' DNA is still very much that of the old Reform-Alliance: outsiders suspicious of government to the point of paranoia, fiercely partisan practitioners of take-no-prisoners politics. While these traits served them well during the campaign, in opposition, and even as a minority government – when clawing for every tactical advantage was the daily cut and thrust – their greatest strengths may be their greatest weaknesses in their new role.

Because it's a different game now, and we'll have to wait and see how well the Conservatives and their leader can adapt to the new one. They must switch from attacking and dividing a fractured opposition that was frightened of triggering an election, to fulfilling the commitments they've made to the people who voted for them in the last four elections.

Managing those expectations won't be easy, because while a socially and economically conservative legislative program will please long-suffering Conservative supporters, it risks angering Canadians who were blissfully ignorant 'til now of Harper's so-called "secret agenda". Move too timidly, and you disappoint your base; move too boldly, and you risk a backlash.

The Conservatives will also have to restrain their attack dog instincts when it comes to the Liberals. There will be some who will want to finish off their old enemies, but it's actually in the Conservatives' best interests to leave the Liberals alone. A Liberal party that continues to attract 15-20% of the vote and wins 30-40 seats – in effect, fills the role left vacant by the NDP – ensures that the NDP can't win the 40% of the popular vote it would need to form the government.

In other words, just because he has a majority, doesn't mean it's clear sailing for Stephen Harper and his party. They will face the usual challenges all governments do, and for the first time in five years, be seen to be clearly in charge, and therefore, be held clearly responsible.

It's not that Harper and his governments have not made some serious mistakes in the past, but faced with an ineffective opposition, they avoided serious damage. Until now, the Conservatives' chief talents have lain in spreading blame and slinging mud, but they'll need a different skill set in order to govern effectively. It remains to be seen whether they possess it.