We're Like Mike

Somewhere today, Mike Harris is smiling.

The vicious thug who believed it was the job of government to destroy what previous generations had built and to terrorize the weak and powerless has achieved his goal of permanently transforming Ontario into a mean-spirited, economic backwater.

When Harris cut taxes by 30%, economists (at least those who didn't butt-smooch for banks or right-wing "think" tanks) warned that he was destroying Ontario's "fiscal capacity". That was a fancy way of saying we wouldn't have enough money to pay our bills. Like me or you saying, "To hell with it; I'm cutting back to three days a week."

They were right. Harris skipped town on ballooning government debt and a huge deficit.

A newly-elected Dalton McGuinty caused an uproar when he tried to disguise the tax increase that was necessary to balance the books as a "health premium". But he learned his lesson: tax cuts are popular; tax increases are not.

So when he did the right thing fiscally by harmonizing the GST and PST, he also did the irresponsible, but popular, thing politically: he simultaneously cut personal and corporate income taxes. You hadn't noticed? That's because, just like Harris' cuts, the benefits of such cuts go mainly to the wealthy. That's the point.

And then the Great Recession hit Ontario, and the grateful corporations closed their factories and fired their workers, and Ontario was a few billions short -- $17 billion to be precise.

You didn't hear about that during last fall's election – from any of the parties. It's what's called "an inconvenient truth". But McGuinty had already appointed a former bank economist called Drummond to "study" the situation. He wasn't allowed to consider tax increases; he was to find "efficiencies". And buy time until after the election. And to soften us up. And to provide political cover.

In fact, as part of the softening up process, McGuinty himself criss-crossed the province telling us we would all have to make sacrifices. And boasting how his government had cut our taxes by $18 billion a year. Remember that $17 billion annual deficit? In other words, a deficit entirely of his making, Entirely unnecessary. Completely avoidable.

Restore taxes on the wealthy and corporations making record profits to the level they were just a few years ago. Do that, and the deficit disappears. No need to sacrifice children, the disabled, the poor, the elderly, the sick, and all those who are going to lose their livelihoods and homes with the budget proposed yesterday.

The Liberals will say they made "hard" choices; that they're being "tough". They always say that when they pick on the powerless and the unpopular, like public sector workers.

Want to show me how tough you are McGuinty? Raise taxes on the rich. But that really would be hard.

And that's why Mike Harris is smiling. Because he succeeded in changing us. He remade us in his own image: a province of selfish, small-minded bullies, unwilling to pay a few bucks a week – the price of a large double-double – to preserve the Ontario our parents bequeathed to us.

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Winners and Losers

The results of last night's Ontario election: Liberals: 53, Progressive Conservatives: 37, New Democrats: 17. So, who were the winners and losers?

Dalton McGuinty was a winner. He earned his third consecutive election victory, a rarity in politics. He came from far back in the polls just a few months ago, preaching a message of hope about the future that many Ontarians embraced in the midst of economic turbulence.

Dalton McGuinty was a loser. His Liberals lost 19 seats, several points in the popular vote, and majority status, barely.

Tim Hudak was a winner. In his first campaign as leader, he increased his party's share of the popular vote by 2.5% and its seat total by 12.

Tim Hudak was a loser. He blew a double-digit lead in the polls with a bizarrely negative campaign that went off message several times, attacking immigrants as "foreign workers" and supporting homophobic groups that accused schools of promoting cross-dressing. He was inexperienced, and it showed.

Andrea Horwath was a winner. She increased her party's popular vote by 8% and seat total by 7. In her first campaign, she earned recognition and respect and finally laid to rest the ghost of the Rae government.

Andrea Horwath was a loser. Her party's platform was eerily similar to that of Hudak's PC's, stressing tax cuts for "working families". Sure, there was a promise to roll back the most recent Liberal cuts to corporate tax rates, but under Horwath, the NDP adopted the rhetoric of anti-tax populists, hardly sounding like a progressive party.

So what does the future hold?

This was Dalton McGuinty's last campaign, and everyone knows it. Liberal cabinet ministers (those who survived last night) are already jockeying for the leadership. How will he retain his hold on his own caucus and cabinet, let alone the legislature? He's in for a tough time, but it would be a mistake to underestimate him. There's certainly some truth to the nice guy persona, but there's also steel under the Mr. Dad cardigan.

Hudak and Horwath have both earned the right to stick around and next time they will be the experienced campaigners facing a rookie Liberal leader.

In his "concession" speech, Hudak continued to raise the spectre of the bogeyman Dalton McGuinty, the "tax man". Two points: dude, the election's over. And if it didn't work then, why do you think it's going to work now? Get some new material, please. He came off as strident and petty. Significantly, he praised Horwath, no doubt knowing that every vote the NDP gains comes from the Liberals. It may be his only hope: in this campaign, Hudak branded himself as Mr. Negative. Unless he can shake that image, his growth prospects seem limited.

Horwath stressed her eagerness to get down to work as soon as possible, and her readiness to work with the other parties to address the urgent challenges facing Ontario. She came across as positive and energetic. She poses a real threat to the Liberals next election. And Tim Hudak's best chance to become premier. Unless Andrea Horwath beats him to it.

You can now follow me on Twitter: @AeneasLane