Winners and Losers

The results of last night's Ontario election: Liberals: 53, Progressive Conservatives: 37, New Democrats: 17. So, who were the winners and losers?

Dalton McGuinty was a winner. He earned his third consecutive election victory, a rarity in politics. He came from far back in the polls just a few months ago, preaching a message of hope about the future that many Ontarians embraced in the midst of economic turbulence.

Dalton McGuinty was a loser. His Liberals lost 19 seats, several points in the popular vote, and majority status, barely.

Tim Hudak was a winner. In his first campaign as leader, he increased his party's share of the popular vote by 2.5% and its seat total by 12.

Tim Hudak was a loser. He blew a double-digit lead in the polls with a bizarrely negative campaign that went off message several times, attacking immigrants as "foreign workers" and supporting homophobic groups that accused schools of promoting cross-dressing. He was inexperienced, and it showed.

Andrea Horwath was a winner. She increased her party's popular vote by 8% and seat total by 7. In her first campaign, she earned recognition and respect and finally laid to rest the ghost of the Rae government.

Andrea Horwath was a loser. Her party's platform was eerily similar to that of Hudak's PC's, stressing tax cuts for "working families". Sure, there was a promise to roll back the most recent Liberal cuts to corporate tax rates, but under Horwath, the NDP adopted the rhetoric of anti-tax populists, hardly sounding like a progressive party.

So what does the future hold?

This was Dalton McGuinty's last campaign, and everyone knows it. Liberal cabinet ministers (those who survived last night) are already jockeying for the leadership. How will he retain his hold on his own caucus and cabinet, let alone the legislature? He's in for a tough time, but it would be a mistake to underestimate him. There's certainly some truth to the nice guy persona, but there's also steel under the Mr. Dad cardigan.

Hudak and Horwath have both earned the right to stick around and next time they will be the experienced campaigners facing a rookie Liberal leader.

In his "concession" speech, Hudak continued to raise the spectre of the bogeyman Dalton McGuinty, the "tax man". Two points: dude, the election's over. And if it didn't work then, why do you think it's going to work now? Get some new material, please. He came off as strident and petty. Significantly, he praised Horwath, no doubt knowing that every vote the NDP gains comes from the Liberals. It may be his only hope: in this campaign, Hudak branded himself as Mr. Negative. Unless he can shake that image, his growth prospects seem limited.

Horwath stressed her eagerness to get down to work as soon as possible, and her readiness to work with the other parties to address the urgent challenges facing Ontario. She came across as positive and energetic. She poses a real threat to the Liberals next election. And Tim Hudak's best chance to become premier. Unless Andrea Horwath beats him to it.

You can now follow me on Twitter: @AeneasLane

Two Weeks to Voting Day

I have to admit, I haven't been paying a lot of attention to the Ontario election so far. Perhaps, and you may want to have your pitchforks and torches handy, it's because I'm generally satisfied with what the McGuinty government has done over the last eight years.

Investment in the auto makers, the HST, all-day kindergarten, green energy -- while unpopular with some, are policies that will benefit Ontario significantly in the long run.

There are certainly things I could find fault with: chiefly the incompetent management of several of the province's programs, agencies and commissions. But these problems often had their origins in the Harris years; the Liberals' fault lay mainly in not dealing with them sooner. But then, they had a huge mess to clean up.

However, I'm not going to expend time and energy critiquing, or even poking fun at Tim Hudak and the Conservatives.

I really don't have to: Rob Ford and the American Tea Partiers are doing a pretty good job undermining Hudak's credibility on his promise to cut taxes and balance the budget without cutting programs.

I'm just going to state the fundamental reason why I'm opposed to conservative political ideology and leave it at that.

It comes down to the difference between a "taxpayer" and a "citizen":

A taxpayer sees his or her condition as a victim of government. Taxes are a form of confiscation and so the best thing politicians can do is cut them. Always. Conservatives thus appeal to narrow self-interest. But I don't object just on moral grounds. This narrow self-interest is also short-sighted, because as every business person knows, you can't starve an enterprise to greatness; you have to spend money to make money.

A citizen, on the other hand, sees his- or herself as part of a community and a larger society. Taxes are a form of investment, a contribution to our social capital that pays future dividends in the form of a better and more prosperous future for all. Citizens recognize the need for taxes to rise when the situation warrants.

Of the three major parties contesting the election, I see Dalton McGuinty's Liberals as the party most aligned with this vision of Ontario as one comprised of citizens, working together, contributing to a better future for all.

I have to say something about Andrea Horwath and her New Democrats. I've supported the New Democrats most of my life, but I'm disappointed that Horwath has chosen to go fishing in the same anti-tax waters as Hudak: promising to remove the HST from home heating and reduce gasoline taxes. Progressive people should not be anti-tax, particularly taxes that contribute to combatting the effects of climate change.

So, I'm going to leave it there. I welcome your comments.

You can now follow me on Twitter: @AeneasLane

Still Confused?

Previously, I've described how you could tell if you might be turning into a Conservative (If you like your guns long and your census short, you might be a Conservative). You can diagnose yourself by clicking here and here.

However, I know that, for some of you, the fear persists. So, to reassure you, here are some ways to tell that you're definitely not turning into a Conservative.

• You think it's a bad idea to paint a giant bull's eye on the sides of our air force planes.
  
• You'd rather drive a Ford than vote for one.
  
• You think bullying a church-based human rights organization, falsifying a document to make it look like the recommendation of civil servants, and lying about it to a parliamentary committee makes you unfit to be a cabinet minister.
  
• You think you're safer protesting in Cairo than you are in Toronto.
  
• You've played the Tim Hudak drinking game: every time he says, "Ontario families," you take a drink. You were blotto in fifteen minutes.
  
• You think a secret deal to hand over control of Canada's borders and immigration policy to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security is probably a bad deal.
  
• You think that TV and radio stations shouldn't be allowed to broadcast "news" they know is false.
  
• You think, "If we build it, they will come," is not a good enough reason to spend nearly $10 billion on new prisons.
  
• You live in Toronto and you'd rather ride the bus than throw people under it.
  
• You live in Toronto and you wish you could vote in Calgary.
  
• You can think in sentences, not just bumper stickers.
  
• You own a pink bicycle. Extra points if it has plaid fenders.
  
• You admit you read the Toronto Star and watch the CBC.
  

There must be others. Send me you suggestions. I'll publish them.

Valentine’s Day

It's Valentine's Day, a day to celebrate love in its many forms. A day for hugs and kisses, hearts and flowers, wine and chocolate.

Here at 500 Words World Headquarters, we're big believers in the holiday. And since the old song says, "What the world needs now is love, sweet love," we'd like to offer Valentine's Day wishes for "love, sweet love" where we think there's "just too little of" it.

To Bob and Doug, the hoser twins running Hogtown: make love, not war, on your city. Stop viewing Toronto as a speedbump on the road to your favourite steakhouse in Mississauga. C'mon guys, get outa the car: walk around Kensington Market, take in a play, visit the ROM or the AGO, ride the Rocket, sit on a patio.

To taxpayers: we wish you'd fall in love with the idea of being citizens. Stop expecting your taxes to constantly go down while whining that infrastructure is falling apart, services are declining, and politicians are all liars. Start paying attention. Vote. Need a role model? Look at the Middle East.

To politicians: show us some love. Start talking to us in sentences instead of bumper stickers. The problems are hard; the solutions can't be that simple.

To Conservative MP Steven Blaney: we hope you'll be a bit more loving. The Québec City-area MP wants to require veiled Muslim women to remove their face coverings before voting. We're happy to report he's not trying to force them to remove their veils before they vote by mail.

To Québec: we still love you, but hey, how about some amour for Sikhs? Québec's National Assembly recently passed (unanimously) a motion banning Sikhs from entering while carrying their kirpans, a ceremonial dagger. And now the Bloc Québécois says it wants to see the same rule apply on Parliament Hill, where a Liberal MP from Ontario, Navdeep Bains (Mississauga-Brampton South) wears a kirpan.

To America: thanks for loving us. Seems the most recent Gallup World Affairs poll found that Americans view Canada more favourably than any other country in the world. We know you love our Bieber, but what aboot our health care?

To Ontario Conservative Leader Tim "Mini-Mike" Hudak: thanks, but no thanks. You've had commitment issues with your platform for eighteen months. Then, finally, this week you promise buck-a-bottle beer? We've gotten drunk and let you have your way with us before. All we were left with were the hangover and the bitter regret. It's not even good beer.

To Stephen Harper, couldn't you at least fake it? Loving democracy, I mean. When word broke that the Egyptian people had chased Mubarak from office, you (who shut down Parliament, twice) passionately embraced the moment: "I think the old expression is: 'They're not going to put the toothpaste back in the tube on this one.'" Then your government rolled over and went to sleep.

To you, my readers: I hope that on Valentine's Day, you love and are loved.

Don’t be Alarmed

Judging by the response to my post of October 16, many of you are concerned that you might be turning into Conservatives. As I pointed out, this is a potentially serious condition that can result in hardening of the arteries leading to the brain, so you shouldn't ignore the warning signs. But neither do I want you to become unnecessarily alarmed: after all, if you're reading this blog, you've already taken the first step on the road to good mental health.

But just in case you require more reassurance, I thought I'd provide the answers to some frequently asked questions sent to me by faithful blog readers.

Q: My forehead is getting bigger. Is that a sign I'm turning into a Conservative?

A: That depends. You might be thinking more, resulting in your brain growing larger. In which case, you're fine. But if your forehead is swollen because you keep smacking it and saying, "D'oh!" you might be turning into a Conservative.

Q: I'm planning a European vacation for next summer and don't want people to mistake me for an American. What should I do?

A: Sew a Portuguese flag patch on your backpack.

Q: I like to watch Hockey Night in Canada. I take all the usual precautions during Coach's Corner: I mute the volume and wear welder's goggles, but still I'm worried I might turn into a Conservative.

A: If you're watching the Leafs, I can't help you.

Q: The Conservatives say they'll cut taxes, but not services, and eliminate the deficit too. This sounds pretty good to me.

A: Run, don't walk, to your nearest elementary school and enrol in a remedial Grade 1 arithmetic class.

Q: Tim Hudak was for the HST before Dalton McGuinty enacted it. Now he's against it, but won't scrap it if he becomes premier. I'm confused.

A: So is Tim Hudak.

Q: I don't see what's so bad about shutting down Parliament, or using the unelected Senate to override decisions of elected MP's. Does that make me a Conservative?

A: Either a Conservative or an ayatollah.

Q: Thank you Mr. 5oo Words for helping keep us safe from creeping Conservatism.

A: No need to thank me; I'm merely performing a public service.