Who’s Afraid of Stephen Harper?

Maybe it's just my naturally sunny disposition, or maybe it's all those good meals I enjoyed in Niagara, but I can't bring myself to feel quite as pessimistic as some of my friends at the prospect of the next four and half years under the iron heel of a Stephen Harper majority government.

It's not that, with the Liberals circling the wagons and firing inward, and the NDP/NPD preoccupied with getting a handle on its new role, I expect we'll be saved by the opposition, at least not for a while.

No, my reasons for optimism that the Conservatives won't get things entirely their way have to do with the nature of the Conservatives themselves and that of their leader, and the differences between navigating a minority parliament and leading a majority government.

The Conservatives' DNA is still very much that of the old Reform-Alliance: outsiders suspicious of government to the point of paranoia, fiercely partisan practitioners of take-no-prisoners politics. While these traits served them well during the campaign, in opposition, and even as a minority government – when clawing for every tactical advantage was the daily cut and thrust – their greatest strengths may be their greatest weaknesses in their new role.

Because it's a different game now, and we'll have to wait and see how well the Conservatives and their leader can adapt to the new one. They must switch from attacking and dividing a fractured opposition that was frightened of triggering an election, to fulfilling the commitments they've made to the people who voted for them in the last four elections.

Managing those expectations won't be easy, because while a socially and economically conservative legislative program will please long-suffering Conservative supporters, it risks angering Canadians who were blissfully ignorant 'til now of Harper's so-called "secret agenda". Move too timidly, and you disappoint your base; move too boldly, and you risk a backlash.

The Conservatives will also have to restrain their attack dog instincts when it comes to the Liberals. There will be some who will want to finish off their old enemies, but it's actually in the Conservatives' best interests to leave the Liberals alone. A Liberal party that continues to attract 15-20% of the vote and wins 30-40 seats – in effect, fills the role left vacant by the NDP – ensures that the NDP can't win the 40% of the popular vote it would need to form the government.

In other words, just because he has a majority, doesn't mean it's clear sailing for Stephen Harper and his party. They will face the usual challenges all governments do, and for the first time in five years, be seen to be clearly in charge, and therefore, be held clearly responsible.

It's not that Harper and his governments have not made some serious mistakes in the past, but faced with an ineffective opposition, they avoided serious damage. Until now, the Conservatives' chief talents have lain in spreading blame and slinging mud, but they'll need a different skill set in order to govern effectively. It remains to be seen whether they possess it.

Two Nights, Four Meals in Niagara, Part 2

We began day two with a morning walk to look at the Falls. Then we checked out of the Country Inn and Suites and drove over to Lundy's Lane where we wandered about the site of the historic 1814 battle at the top of Drummond's Hill. The afternoon and evening of July 25, 1814 saw some of the bloodiest fighting of the War of 1812. Though the battle itself was indecisive, it marked the failure of the final American attempt to capture Upper Canada. There is also a monument to Laura Secord, who is buried in the cemetery there.

It being Cinco de Mayo, we were in the mood for some Mexican food, and so, again on the recommendation of TripAdvisor contributors, we headed to a strip mall in the north end of Niagara Falls to ¡Frijoles! for lunch. The food here is all fresh, homemade Cali-Mex. I had a couple of tacos – chicken and steak – Baja-style, with the white lightning sauce, while my wife chose the quesadilla. We washed everything down with a couple of Mexican fruit sodas. The cost was less than $20. If you're a fan of this kind of food, you couldn't do better.

Then we headed back downtown where we checked into the Radisson Hotel & Suites Fallsview. Why didn't we stay a second night at the Country Inn and Suites? Here's where my points and miles collecting hobby comes into play. Carlson Hotels (of which both Radisson and Country Inn are a part) currently has a promotion whereby Club Carlson members can earn a free night after completing two stays. Not two nights, two stays; hence the requirement to change hotels. So my little manoeuvre earned me a free night I can use before December 31 at any Radisson or Country Inn worldwide.

But I also double-dipped, because I earned over 4,200 Club Carlson points for my two nights. Actually, I triple-dipped: I earned a bonus of 1,000 points for each reservation because I booked online. Since free nights begin at 9K points, I'm well on the way to another free night. And because I paid with my American Express Gold Rewards card, I earned membership rewards points which can be converted to miles or points with a variety of airline or hotel partners. But since I earn double membership rewards for travel spending, you could say I quintuple-dipped, probably my best points/miles score ever.

Our final dinner was at Massimo Capra's Rainbow Room in the Crowne Plaza Hotel on Falls Boulevard at the foot of Clifton Hill. The celebrity chef has lent his name and his talents to creating a menu showcasing Niagara food and wine. The views are spectacular, service is hospitable, the food creatively presented and delicious. And priced accordingly. Though, surprisingly, wine was a comparative bargain. The bottle we drank, Henry of Pelham Cuvée Catherine Brut Rosé, is $29.95 at the LCBO, but was only $40 at the Rainbow Room.

We left satisfied, but seeking some further adventure, rode the Niagara SkyWheel, then took a taxi to the Fallsview Casino, where, alas, we failed to win our fortune.

The next morning we headed for home.

Two Nights, Four Meals in Niagara, Part 1

Suffering post-election hangover, Mrs. 500 Words and I headed to Ontario's Niagara Region for a few days' R&R.

Our first stop was for lunch at Vineland Estates Winery in Vineland. For $29.95 per person, we enjoyed the Spring Fling Chef's Lunch and Wine Package in the winery's restaurant overlooking the Escarpment Bench and Lake Ontario. Part of the Niagara Spring Flings promotion, we were served a three-course lunch paired with Vineland Estates wines. That day's menu consisted of mussels served with Vineland Chardonnay Musqué, an open-face steak sandwich accompanied by a Cabernet Merlot, and dessert of rhubarb sorbet and cheesecake with Late Harvest Vidal. It was all delicious.

After browsing the wine shop and picking up some of the Chardonnay Musqué, our favourite of the wines we had been served, it was off to Niagara Falls and the hotel we had booked for the night, the Country Inn and Suites by Carlson. This property is located on Victoria Avenue, across from the rear of Casino Niagara, the first casino built in the Falls, and close to the attractions on Clifton Hill. Our room was spacious and clean, and included a small fridge and microwave. There is an indoor pool, spa, and fitness room. A breakfast buffet was included in the nightly rate of $79. Parking was an additional $5 per night.

Although there are many restaurants close by, we chose to take a taxi several kilometres to the Syndicate Restaurant & Brewery on Lundy's Lane. I admit, the main reason for our choice was the beer brewed on the premises, but Syndicate had also received good reviews on TripAdvisor.

We were completely unprepared for how good the food was. The better brewpubs I've been to, like Duggan's in Toronto, may aspire to beef ribs braised in dark ale, but Syndicate would be a dining destination even without the beer. The menu is a fixed price of $17, with a few items involving an additional $2 or $3 charge.

For starters, I had the Atlantic crab cake that was accompanied by collard and fingerling potato hash. Mrs. 500 Words enjoyed the Syndicate Benny, consisting of a poached duck egg and local bresoala (air-dried, salted beef) on puff pastry with horseradish and ale cream.

For our entrées, she had the bouillabaisse, loaded with shrimp, scallops, fish, clams, mussels, and calamari in a saffron lobster broth. Even the accompanying grilled flatbread was deemed delicious. I had the pan roasted lemon and thyme chicken suprème with Yukon gold potatoes mashed with applewood smoked bacon. I was a happy man.

For dessert, my wife had a crème brulé and a blueberry tea, while I had a selection of three cheeses and ripe olives, chosen to complement the beer I was drinking. My wife had tried the flight of four sample sized beers. I had half-pints of three different beers, one per course. Before tax, our bill was less than $80. Service was attentive, accommodating, and knowledgeable. Food of this creativity and quality, at this price, is unequalled in our experience.

In part 2, I'll tell you about our second day.

No Crystal Ball

Well, my crystal ball was as faulty as everyone else's in predicting Monday night's results. So I'm not going to make any bold predictions about the next four days, let alone the next four years. But here are some random thoughts, questions, and possibilities, in no particular order.

It's too soon to write the Liberal Party's epitaph. Four years gives Liberals plenty of time away from the day to day manoeuvring in a minority parliament in order to do the soul-searching and re-inventing necessary to reconnect with Canadians. If they can't do that, well…

And I don't mean, "All we have to do is find the right leader." Liberals have been saying that for years now and most Canadians hear that as, "We have the right product; we just need the right face and Canadians will buy it." The Detroit automakers said much the same thing. Same result.

It`s too early to talk about "uniting the left". For one thing, NDP and Liberal partisans and party operatives tend to be hostile to one another. Besides, the Liberals are not particularly leftish (in B.C., they unite with the Conservatives under the Liberal name to battle the NDP). Neither, for that matter, is the NDP anymore. Under Layton, it has moved closer to the pragmatic centre. The possibility of a united progressive alternative to the Conservatives depends mainly on the success or failure of the Liberals' rebuilding effort. Given its showing on Monday, the NDP has little incentive to consider the option right now.

The Liberals may change their position on proportional representation. So might the NDP.

The Conservatives may find that a majority is a two-edged sword. Canadians will know whom to hold accountable for the state of the economy and social programs in four years time. Will the budget be balanced, as promised? What cuts will be made to achieve that? Who will do the sacrificing?

By 2015, Stephen Harper will have been prime minister for nine years.

The Conservatives will face stronger opposition to their policies. Not just because the NDP differs more ideologically from the Cons than the Liberals did, but also because they can do so safe in the knowledge they don't risk an election.

The NDP may not be up to the job, or Jack Layton's health may decline. This was as much a Layton victory as an NDP one.

The NDP's neophyte MP's will produce a bumper crop of embarrassments. The Conservatives and the MSM will make sure we know about them.

The NDP is now also the NPD, with more than half its MP's from Québec. This will, of necessity, shape the future of the party as well as that province. Will the NDP have to become a "big tent" party to accommodate and balance the aspirations of nationalist Québecers and the ROC (like the Liberals used to be)? Will Québecers realign politically along the traditional left-right spectrum as opposed to the federalist-sovreigntist axis?

The Bloc is dead, but the sovereigntist cause is not. Some sovereigntists had already come to the conclusion, that after twenty years, the Bloc was a failed experiment, that "sovereignty must be made in Québec." In defeat, expect sovreigntists to embrace this idea to salve their wounds.

Have the Conservatives simply given up on Québec? They've shown they don't need Québec to win a majority. The additional seats that will be added elsewhere in the country before the next election make Québec even less necessary to them. And that could have nasty repercussions.

The surge in the NDP was not the main reason the Conservatives won a majority. The Conservatives increased their share of the vote to just under 40%. In our three-(or four-, or five-)party system, that generally gets you a majority.

Last-minute polls had the NDP numbers right but were low for the CPC by a couple points and high for the LPC by an equal amount. Did Harper`s appeal to right-wing Liberals to stop the NDP surge have the desired effect?

What impact will the federal results have on upcoming elections in Ontario and Québec?

The West is in – in charge.

Election Day Predictions

Thought I'd stick my neck out, just for fun. The only prediction I have any confidence in is that the Conservatives will win the most seats. I put their chances of a majority at 30%, but a minority is more likely.

The wild card is how strong a showing the NDP makes, whom they take votes from, and how the vote splits in 3-way, and even 4-way races. There'll probably be several recounts.

It looks as if voter turnout will be greater than the 58.8% registered in the 2008 election and that will have an impact as well.

Will social media play a role? Will young people vote?

It promises to be an historic night.

Anyway, CPC: 145, NDP: 80, LPC: 57, BQ: 26.

That means Harper will form a government and there will be no NDP-LPC coalition. But plenty will have changed. Buckle up.

Whatever your choice, Canada and democracy are winners when you vote.

Have a great day.